Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
11 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0212 GMT - Iron ore prices are lower amid ample supply. Iron ore shipments and arrivals at Chinese ports remain at high levels, with significant volume increases from non-mainstream mines, Tongguan Jinyuan Futures says in a research note. With mining capacity continuing to ramp up, expectations for inventory accumulation are strong, it adds. The iron ore market will likely continue to see strong supply and weak demand in the next month, it adds. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange drops 1.2% to 676.0 yuan a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0021 GMT - Oil futures decline on a possible technical correction after they solid gains overnight. However, downward pressure on the futures is likely to be tempered by ongoing tensions in the Middle East. "Tensions were heightened as Saudi Arabia said it was dealing with new drone and missile assaults on Monday," ANZ Research analysts say in a research report. "Rising attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz are again constraining oil flows from the Persian Gulf," the analysts add. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway through which one-fifth of the world's oil is transported. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.8% lower at $92.96 per barrel; front-month Brent crude oil futures 0.8% lower at $105.75 a barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0010 GMT - LGI's solar acquisition is seen by its bull at Bell Potter as progressing its strategic objective of developing and operating a diverse renewable-energy platform. Analyst Ritesh Varma tells clients in a note that the Australian company now has a medium-term operating pipeline of 125 megawatts, made up of 26MW of biogas generation, 42MW of solar generation and 57MW of battery storage. Varma says the next major catalyst is the commissioning of a 12MW battery, most likely in the current quarter. He concedes that the operating environment is difficult, but sees upside risk. Bell Potter keeps a buy rating on the stock and lifts its target price 6.3% to 3.40 Australian dollars. Shares are flat at A$2.35. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2259 GMT - Whitehaven Coal's bull at Morgan Stanley raises its price target by 6%, to A$8.95/share, highlighting several tailwinds for the miner. "Higher gas prices, constrained Indonesian supply and Indian restocking should support thermal coal," MS says. It estimates thermal coal prices at the Australian port of Newcastle averaged US$155/ton between July and September. MS adds that Chinese mine restrictions are helping to support metallurgical coal, which is used in steelmaking. Specific to Whitehaven Coal, MS is upbeat about its improving operating performance in Australia's New South Wales state. Strong coal prices are supporting Whitehaven's cash generation and free cash flow yields, MS says. Whitehaven ended Monday at A$7.78. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2210 GMT - Metals X likely needs to raise its offer for U.K.-listed First Tin to get a deal done, suggests Shaw and Partners. Metals X's proposal is worth GBP0.15/share. The Australian miner already owns nearly 30% of First Tin. Analyst Peter Kormendy says the offer price looks light against the 2024 definitive feasibility study for First Tin's Taronga project, which is being updated. "The strategic logic fits our consolidator thesis and the cost is modest relative to current Metals X cash," Shaw says. "Key questions from here are the increase likely needed for a successful outcome, and how Taronga capex sits alongside Rentails FID." Rentails is Metals X's tin project in Tasmania. Shaw has a hold call and A$1.90/share price target on Metals X, which ended Monday at A$2.03. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2155 GMT - Metro Mining's production setback is disappointing, but Shaw & Partners says the investment case is intact. Metro Mining shipped 659,000 tons of bauxite last month. That was about 200,000 less than expected. The difference resulted from a channel collapse that constrained barge capacity. Analyst Andrew Hines now expects Metro Mining to ship 6.2 million tons of bauxite this year. That's below current guidance, which is likely to be downgraded. Still, Shaw views weakness in Metro Mining's share price as a buying opportunity. "Metro Mining is profitable, generating free cash with a strong balance sheet and will finish the year with a cash balance of A$60 million-A$70 million," says Shaw. Its price target falls 13% to A$2.60/share. Metro Mining ended Monday at A$0.88. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2144 GMT - Metro Mining's credibility takes another hit after the bauxite miner misses expectations for September shipments, says Ord Minnett. It says the weaker-than-expected monthly outcome puts annual guidance for shipments out of reach. "Metro Mining would need to average roughly 860,000 tons/month across the final three months of 2026 to hit the bottom end of former guidance" of 6.6 million-7.1 million tons, analyst Matthew Hope says. Ord Minnett thinks 6.2 million-6.4 million tons is a more realistic outcome. Achieving that would require shipment rates of approximately 775,000 tons/month through the December quarter. Ord Minnett retains a buy call but lowers its price target by 30% to A$1.75/share. Metro Mining ended Monday at A$0.88. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1941 GMT - Oil futures rise for a third consecutive session with the market wary of continuing conflict in the Middle East and dubious about an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. "The market may remain fearful of a renewed disruption and loss of supplies whether in the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea as long as escalation risks stay high," Samer Hasn of XS.com says in a note. The senior analyst also sees "no reason to be optimistic" about President Trump's announcement that Russia and Ukraine would refrain from striking each other's energy infrastructure. Brent settles up 1.8% at $106.65 a barrel and WTI rises 2.1% to $93.74 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1934 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures give back Friday's gains as warmer weekend weather forecasts limit early-season heating demand. "The latest outlook puts above-normal temperatures across much of the country in the 11-to-15-day period, postponing a stronger seasonal call for gas," Gelber & Associates says in a note. Offshore production continued to recover after Hurricane Isaias with the Marine Minerals Administration reporting 531 million cubic feet a day offline at midday Monday, compared with 1.3 Bcf/d that was shut in Friday. Nymex natural gas settles down 1.6% at $3.167/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1817 GMT - Gold futures settle lower amid U.S. dollar gains and a rise in oil futures as Middle East tensions persist. The firmer dollar and high oil prices "reinforced concerns that persistent energy-driven inflation could keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish policy path," Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo says in a note. The market will be looking to this week's U.S. inflation data--CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday--as well as comments by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh for more clarity on the interest-rate outlook, she adds. Front-month gold settles down 0.6% in New York at $4,165.80 a troy ounce and silver falls 0.9% to $60.141 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1634 GMT - Gold futures are lower with the U.S. dollar gaining, while oil futures rise. Strong central bank demand and inflows into gold-backed ETFs have provided support for the metal amid shifting interest-rate expectations, geopolitical tension and global market uncertainty, says Paul Hoffman, a data analyst at BestBrokers.com, in a note. Prices have responded to changing expectations around monetary policy, movements in the U.S. dollar and shifts in investor positioning, "while September's correction demonstrated how quickly sentiment can turn even during a broader period of strong demand," he adds. Gold for December delivery is off 0.6% in New York at $4,189.30 a troy ounce. Silver is down 0.8% at $60.555 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1626 GMT - Gold futures are lower with the U.S. dollar gaining and oil futures rising. Strong central bank demand and inflows into gold-backed ETFs have provided support for the metal amid shifting interest-rate expectations, geopolitical tension and global market uncertainty, says Paul Hoffman, a data analyst at BestBrokers.com, in a note. Prices have responded to changing expectations around monetary policy, movements in the U.S. dollar and shifts in investor positioning, "while September's correction demonstrated how quickly sentiment can turn even during a broader period of strong demand," he adds. Gold for December delivery is off 0.6% in New York at $4,189.30 a troy ounce. Silver is down 0.8% at $60.555 a troy ounce.

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