The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0817 GMT - BP's planned strategy update in December is earlier than expected, Barclays Lydia Rainforth writes. It will give investors a clearer view of CEO Meg O'Neill's approach after eight months in the role come December, she writes. The British energy major's third-quarter update demonstrates the strength of its trading arm and integrated model, she says. Following the update, Barclays increases its full-year replacement-cost operating profit estimate by around 5% to $11 billion and its adjusted net income estimate by around 20% to $6.5 billion. Shares rise 1.4% to 596 pence.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0812 GMT - BMI raised its average copper price forecast for this year to $13,500 a metric ton from $12,700 a ton, citing tariff-related market disruptions and persistent supply constraints. "For the remainder of 2026, we expect copper prices to remain volatile and highly sensitive to tariff-policy developments, with the eventual Washington decision likely to set the near-term market direction, while broadly intact structural tightness should temper the extent of any correction," analysts at the firm say. Over the longer term, copper prices are expected to be supported by a persistent supply deficit and rising demand as the energy transition gathers pace. BMI forecasts copper prices reaching $17,000 a ton by 2035, driven by electrification and investment in clean-energy infrastructure. In early trading, three-month copper futures on the LME are flat at $14,624.50 a ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0814 GMT - Saudi Arabia's economy is expected to contract 2.4% in 2026 after expanding 4.6% last year, as disruption to oil production and weaker non-oil growth weigh on activity, Citi Research says. The bank forecasts a 16.7% decline in oil-sector output, while non-oil growth slows to 1.9% from 5.1%. Although alternative crude-export routes have partly shielded the kingdom from the Strait of Hormuz disruption, Citi warns that a widening fiscal deficit could constrain private-sector borrowing if the government relies heavily on domestic financing. Escalating tensions with the Iran-backed Houthi militia add to the downside risks, it says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0800 GMT - BP's third-quarter trading statement confirms its deleveraging efforts are working, J.P. Morgan's Matthew Lofting writes. The update shows a significant reduction in net debt and should push expectations for earnings and cash flow from operations higher due to a strong trading performance and lower group tax rate, he says. Shares rise 1.46% to 596 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0736 GMT - Comex gold futures may retest support at $4,150 per ounce, RHB Retail Research's Joseph Chai says in a research report. The futures' latest negative price action on the daily chart reaffirms that immediate resistance is still firm at the $4,300-per-ounce level, the analyst says. The relative strength index also continues to move sideways below the 50% threshold, suggesting that bullish momentum remains weak, Chai says. Initial resistance is pegged at $4,300 per ounce followed by subsequent resistance at $4,400 per ounce, the analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.5% higher at $4,190.55 per ounce. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0733 GMT - European natural-gas prices climb to their highest level since December 2022, with the benchmark Dutch TTF contract up 1.7% to 85.82 euros a megawatt-hour. "The market is grappling with the idea that we're about to go through a large part of the Northern hemisphere winter with little Persian Gulf LNG supply," analysts at ING say. Low European gas storage levels and mandated restocking are supporting prices, raising the risk of stronger competition with Asian buyers and potential price spikes over winter. EU storage is 73% full, according to industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe, below the five-year average of 89%. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0733 GMT - The U.A.E. economy is expected to contract by 0.2% in 2026 after growing 6.2% last year, as weakness in non-oil activity outweighs continued oil-sector expansion, Citi Research says. The bank forecasts a 0.8% decline in non-oil output, reversing growth of 6.8% in 2025, while oil-sector growth slows to 1.7% from 4.3%. Citi considers the U.A.E. the most exposed Gulf economy to the Middle East conflict through trade, tourism, imports and domestic demand. However, its strong fiscal position and external buffers give authorities considerable room to respond if disruptions persist, the bank says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0731 GMT - Brent crude could fall to $65 a barrel from the second quarter of 2027 if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes and regional energy infrastructure avoids lasting damage, Citi Research says. The bank assigns a 60% probability to its base case, which assumes flows recover in the fourth quarter and Brent declines to $70 in the first quarter of 2027. However, Citi sees a 30% probability of prolonged disruption, particularly to refined-product exports, or further infrastructure damage, which could keep Brent averaging $120 throughout 2027. The bank says the timing of any normalization remains unusually uncertain. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0717 GMT - The Gulf economy is expected to contract by 3.1% this year, reversing growth of 4.5% in 2025, as the regional conflict disrupts oil production and weighs on non-oil activity, Citi Research says. The bank forecasts a 13.7% contraction in oil-sector output, while non-oil growth is expected to slow to 1.0% from 5.1% last year. Citi says the economic impact will vary considerably across the six Gulf states, depending on their access to alternative export routes and exposure to disrupted trade and tourism. Its forecasts assume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes in the fourth quarter, with prolonged disruptions posing further downside risks. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0714 GMT - Oil prices fall in early European trading after settling higher in the previous session, as traders weigh supply risks from escalating attacks on Saudi Arabia against the prospect of renewed Russian diesel supplies. Brent crude is down 1.1% to $105.50 a barrel, while WTI futures slide 1.2% to $92.58 a barrel. "There's considerable skepticism over the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, particularly with reports that Russia has hit Ukrainian energy targets since Trump announced it," analysts at ING say. "While diesel initially saw some weakness following the U.S.-Russia deal, strength has returned." Meanwhile, attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, deadly strikes against Saudi Arabia by Yemen's Houthi militants, and soaring freight costs are sustaining a high geopolitical risk premium. OPEC+ ministers said Monday that shipping and insurance costs have surged to unprecedented levels, exceeding one-third of the value of the commodities being transported and hindering the efficient movement of crude oil and petroleum products.