Wait & See. The bull market turned four years old on Monday, but there wasn't much of a party. Stocks ended mixed (with the bond market closed for Columbus Day and tech acting as a drag.) Investors are largely waiting to see if earnings season can live up to high expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.38% while the S&P 500 fell 0.06% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.44%.

Third-quarter earnings season kicks off in earnest this week, and investors are feeling a little skittish, given consensus estimates call for S&P 500 companies to grow year-over-year earnings per share by 29.5% on revenue growth of 12.3%. That would be the third consecutive quarter with earnings growth above 25%.

Analysts also raised their third-quarter bottom-up S&P 500 EPS estimates during Q3 by 1.4%, while over the past five years they have lowered it by 2.2%. But with S&P 500 EPS more than doubling growth estimates in Q2, "the slightly higher bar this go around might very well be a non-factor," Ameriprise Chief Market Strategist Anthony Saglimbene wrote in a note on Monday.

Nonetheless investors weren't in the mood for much risk today, and tech stocks led the market lower. Sentiment soured on that sector given China's leading memory maker, CXMT, plans to roll out a new product by the end of the year, "a direct shot at the most profitable corner of the memory market," wrote InvestorPlace Senior Investment Analyst Luke Lango. Memory makers like Micron and SK Hynix are down about 4%. Chip and optic stocks were caught up in the selling too.

Still, earnings are likely to take back control of the headlines in the coming days. Investors just have to hope it's for the best.

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The Hot Stock: Fair Isaac Corporation +10.9% The Biggest Loser: Ciena Corporation -10%

Best Sector: Energy +1.5% Worst Sector: Information Technology -0.9%

Cold Weather, Hot Stocks

We're about halfway through October already. That's bad news for those among us that love fall foliage, spooky season, and dread winter's return.

It's largely good news for investors, though, because while autumn can be atrocious for stocks, the holidays are usually jolly.

That's according to data from Morningstar's Dan Lefkovitz, who looked at more than 100 years of returns -- measured by a market-cap-weighted composite of all stocks in the Center for Research in Security Prices $(CRSP)$ database. "September showed up as the only month in which average returns have been negative," he writes. "September's return becomes positive when you look at the median instead of the average, but it's still the lowest-returning of the 12 months."

October isn't far behind, as it's historically the second-weakest month for stocks (although midterm election years have bucked this trend). "Three big crashes happened in October, including 1929, 1987's 'Black Monday,' and the 2008 global financial crisis," Lefkovitz writes. "But it can also signal a market bottom."

And after the storm, the sunshine returns -- albeit adjusted for daylight savings. "November has been the best month for the U.S. stock market over the past 100 years," he writes. "It had the highest return on both an average and median basis. December has been another great month, which lends credence to the 'Santa Claus Rally.'"

The days may be getting shorter, but they could be brighter.

The Calendar

Albertsons, Citigroup, Domino's Pizza, Goldman Sachs Group, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, UnitedHealth Group, and Wells Fargo report quarterly results tomorrow.

The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for September. The consensus call is for a 98 reading, about one point less than in August, and right in line with the 52-year average.

The National Association of Realtors report existing-home sales for September. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million homes sold, roughly even with the August figure. Existing-home sales remain near a post Great Financial Crisis low, as 30-year mortgage rates have soared past 7%

-- Dan Lam

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